Extend Lifespan of Career: Plan Forward

The mission of Lucas Orchard will now turn away from making money on the stock market to extending the lifespan of your career, as you get most of the information you need to trade and invest in the stock market based on your career.

I will cover computer science topics including cryptography, graphics and design, and artificial intelligence more in depth. I will include coverage of cryptocurrencies.

The problem with fundamental analysis and spending a lot of time on it is it gets dated pretty quickly, so you have to do a lot of work over and over again on similar information, like Myth of Sisyphus. The goal is never to analyze, but to know the fundamentals. In other words, a fundamental stock trader is like someone who knows the fundamentals of a stock, but she doesn’t have to know how to trade the stock on fundamentals. It is very difficult to draw a connection between fundamentals and stock price movement, beyond quantitative and statistical methods which would then not have much use for fundamentals anyway.

One strategy which doesn’t work on the stock market is any sort of arbitrage on indices or mean reversion and momentum models. Those are well priced in such that they become risk factors. This just means that these strategies are guaranteed to stop working as soon as the pattern appears because their risk outweighs returns. I’m glossing over the details here. In credit markets, that sort of strategy did work because technical analysis worked in credit markets briefly in liquid instruments such as CDX.IG. Where technical analysis works, so does arbitrage, but generally we know arbitrage doesn’t work, and so technical analysis doesn’t work. When arbitrage does work, we would rather do it then use technical analysis. So again, I would caution against using technical analysis. You want to get rich but not like that, without a competitive edge and without a clue about how you got there.

But our focus now will switch to the career, and the components of it. I had a career as a hedge fund trader, analyst and quant hybrid. I’m trying to give all of that to you, the readers of Lucas Orchard, as I now have moved onto other things. We will stay away from political articles as evidently that is not my strength. Global Macro doesn’t need geopolitics. If you want one, you can do some research on the plentiful geopolitics on the internet.

Thanks. And nothing is more graceful than the misuse of grammar to convey intentions.


No comments

Other posts

Fundamentals – GM, GPC, GPS, GRMN, GT
General Motors has some good research going on in fuel cells and other areas. Genuine Parts distributes auto parts as well as other hydraulics and some office supplies. Gap has declining year over year same store sales in its main brands but better ones in Old Navy which has a little lower margins I would think as it is more value oriented brand. Garmin makes instruments such as sports indicators...
Read more
Consumer Discretionary: DHI, DLTR, DRI, EBAY, EXPE, F, FL
DHI – DR Horton homes buys property and builds homes on them. They are exposed to macroeconomic  risk, as higher rates for example makes it more expensive for people to buy homes and also tends to be correlated with inflationary pressure on the raw components that DH Horton homes makes homes with. It’s good to a get a sense of where new construction coming from which is mostly in the...
Read more
Stocks Consumer Discretionary Part II: CCL, CMG, DG
Carnival cruise lines operates half the world’s capacity in cruises and so it is clear bet on the leisure industry once you abstract above the fact that they get a new ship once in a while. Leisure is not a good bet in my view because most people don’t need leisure, they just work all day and get it from staycations. The concept of leisure comes from leisure travel which...
Read more
More posts