05 Oct 2018
Philosophy of History
History is usually construed as a narrative. There are some people who say that you conspire against history if you say you are the good guy when history says someone else is the good guy. For example the Trojans presented themselves as the good guys even though history had presented the Greeks as good guys. The Trojans believed that history was yet to be made, which says that there are...
04 Oct 2018
Soft Skills, and Differential Ethnicity
Ethnicity is a big component of soft skills and you can think of ethnicity as respect, it is earned, it doesn’t come from stories which are just guesses at the end of the day in comparison to the process of earning respect. I became American first and only recently became Chinese. Given that my ethnicity was always Chinese, it was borrowed before I earned it. I used to be nothing...
02 Oct 2018
Having established that when we encounter stories, we should assume away paradoxes, as stories do not give us observations that can generate paradoxes, we now examine the game. For example in one such game, civilization, you research advances and try to elevate your civilization. We can imagine that someone plays as the Greek civilization. But does this mean you are Greek or just playing as Greek? The key here is...
06 Sep 2018
Pure Mathematics and Literature
Pure mathematics starts as a great model for the mind. There is the concept of axiom of choice, which is dependent on the future, and being able to select subsets out of sets extending into the future. There is the axiom of determinism which states that one can win a game with start parameters if you use the best moves. These two axioms are incompatible. Taken together, these axioms guide...
14 Aug 2018
Extend Lifespan of Career: Plan Forward
The mission of Lucas Orchard will now turn away from making money on the stock market to extending the lifespan of your career, as you get most of the information you need to trade and invest in the stock market based on your career. I will cover computer science topics including cryptography, graphics and design, and artificial intelligence more in depth. I will include coverage of cryptocurrencies. The problem with...
17 Jul 2018
Limits of Psychology
In the stock market and otherwise, people will try to apply psychology and classify different behavior as having this or that meaning. This school of thought is known as behaviorist and it contrasts with classical approaches, not just in finance but in many fields such as economics and the law. There are real limits to behavioral approaches, primarily in that by attributing meaning to a specific behavior instead of the...
16 Jul 2018
Chemistry and Trading
“mankind may fear an evil man but heaven does not”- Mengcius The principles of chemistry look at reactions between different elements which are sought to be categorized. The principle of the science is to identify, clarify and classify per the song ninety nine luftballoons by Nena. We can form theories about the molecular orbitals or about the composition of the elements in atoms and their electrons. We can define acids...
15 Jul 2018
Stories drive the Stock Market
As I read through annual reports, it became increasingly clear to me that they would not answer the question of what drives earnings, but would only be useful to get a comprehensive picture of a company’s investment thesis, and also useful to get a delta if something changes in the news, for example, and a company has exposure to that factor, such as sales abroad in China and there being...
06 Jul 2018
Hi Lucas Orchard readers, I will be improving the writing standards of existing posts. This process may take some time and there may be a few new posts in the meantime, but the goal will be to make this website into a stocks analysis site as we’ve done the groundwork. Thanks, Alex
24 Mar 2018
Artificial Intelligence, Minimax, and Game Theory
First off, if you ask what a minimax strategy is in game theory, it is a strategy that maximizes the game states available for your player. That is rational: you want the most points. At the same time though, other players want to do the same and their game states are maximized when your game states are minimized usually. So you are maximizing the worst case payoff in minimax, where...