Fundamentals - HRB, JWN, KMX, KORS, KSS

Fundamentals – HRB, JWN, KMX, KORS, KSS
Fundamentals – HRB, JWN, KMX, KORS, KSS
HRB — H&R Block talks about the risk that governments will prepopulate the tax forms with a change in paperwork JWN – Nordstrom’s has underperformed the stock market and there is talk about taking it private, but the general idea is a company can have a great balance sheet (which is usually priced in), and a great corporate strategy and business, but if it underperforms earnings expectations each quarter and...
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Fundamental Coverage – HAS, HBI, HD, HLT, HOG
Fundamental Coverage – HAS, HBI, HD, HLT, HOG
Hasbro has had a stock price that has taken off last couple of years and a very good model of storytelling combined with games to make toys, which is sort of what we do here in Lucas Orchard (toy models or simple models) when we aren’t discussing serious topics of importance. It is important to understand where the boundary of storytelling lie or you would be generating fake news, and...
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Fundamentals – GM, GPC, GPS, GRMN, GT
Fundamentals – GM, GPC, GPS, GRMN, GT
General Motors has some good research going on in fuel cells and other areas. Genuine Parts distributes auto parts as well as other hydraulics and some office supplies. Gap has declining year over year same store sales in its main brands but better ones in Old Navy which has a little lower margins I would think as it is more value oriented brand. Garmin makes instruments such as sports indicators...
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Consumer Discretionary: DHI, DLTR, DRI, EBAY, EXPE, F, FL
Consumer Discretionary: DHI, DLTR, DRI, EBAY, EXPE, F, FL
DHI – DR Horton homes buys property and builds homes on them. They are exposed to macroeconomic  risk, as higher rates for example makes it more expensive for people to buy homes and also tends to be correlated with inflationary pressure on the raw components that DH Horton homes makes homes with. It’s good to a get a sense of where new construction coming from which is mostly in the...
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Stocks Consumer Discretionary Part II: CCL, CMG, DG
Stocks Consumer Discretionary Part II: CCL, CMG, DG
Carnival cruise lines operates half the world’s capacity in cruises and so it is clear bet on the leisure industry once you abstract above the fact that they get a new ship once in a while. Leisure is not a good bet in my view because most people don’t need leisure, they just work all day and get it from staycations. The concept of leisure comes from leisure travel which...
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Stocks Analysis – Consumer Discretionary Part I: AAP, AMZN, APTV, AZO, BBY, BKNG
Stocks Analysis – Consumer Discretionary Part I: AAP, AMZN, APTV, AZO, BBY, BKNG
A brief qualitative outlook on a few stocks in the S&P500 Consumer Discretionary sector.   Advance Auto Parts – stocks has dropped from index of comparable names; BBB- debt rating; focus on free cash flow (to pay down debt?), makes money from replacement of parts that get worn down by weather (global warming trade?), sells parts and provides services; seems to have friendly personnel based on reviews online Amazon –...
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Philosophy of Assimilation and Immigrant Identity
Philosophy of Assimilation and Immigrant Identity
The typical person who encounters the west will assimilate from scratch to Greek and then possibly German to trace out the development of centers of culture that are uniquely European. This route however can lead to suffering as it is mirrored by the right wing in many countries of the West, and that right wing in practice does not always allow people to assimilate how they want. Nonetheless the only...
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Philosophy of History
Philosophy of History
History is usually construed as a narrative. There are some people who say that you conspire against history if you say you are the good guy when history says someone else is the good guy. For example the Trojans presented themselves as the good guys even though history had presented the Greeks as good guys. The Trojans believed that history was yet to be made, which says that there are...
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Soft Skills, and Differential Ethnicity
Soft Skills, and Differential Ethnicity
Ethnicity is a big component of soft skills and you can think of ethnicity as respect, it is earned, it doesn’t come from stories which are just guesses at the end of the day in comparison to the process of earning respect. I became American first and only recently became Chinese. Given that my ethnicity was always Chinese, it was borrowed before I earned it. I used to be nothing...
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Game Theories
Game Theories
Having established that when we encounter stories, we should assume away paradoxes, as stories do not give us observations that can generate paradoxes, we now examine the game. For example in one such game, civilization, you research advances and try to elevate your civilization. We can imagine that someone plays as the Greek civilization. But does this mean you are Greek or just playing as Greek? The key here is...
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